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COCOA: (Trading Hours: 7:00am-10:50am CST) (Report, as of 1/3
close)
Speculative buying continued to push prices higher today as
the market entered an upside gap that extends to 1550 basis
March. This rally in the last week has been technical in nature.
Arrivals in the Ivory Coast continue to be higher than last
year which would suppress the notion of a smaller crop. There
has been little violence in the Ivory Coast. The main crop will
continue to move through the marketing channels through the
end of this month. The last Commitment of Trader's Report showed
that small specs are net-long over 14,000 contracts. Support
for March is at 1520. Resistance is at 1550.
COFFEE: (Trading Hours: 8:15am-11:30am CST) (Report,
as of 1/3 close) The market pushed to a 1-1/2 month
high of 108.80 basis March today. Fund and spec buying continues
to support this market as there is a tightness of supply in
the cash market. Origin selling has been light at these levels
and may re-emerge if March gets close to 110. The longer-term
outlook is still bearish as a large Brazilian crop is expected
between 40-48 million bags. For now, roasters will be buyers
on breaks in this market. Stocks in certified warehouses as
of 12/30, were at 3,873, 535 bags with 21,261 bags waiting to
be graded. Support for March comes in at 106.00 Resistance is
at 110.00.
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SUGAR: (Trading Hours: 8:00am-11:00am CST) (Report, as of
1/3 close) Prices were significantly lower today on fund
and producer selling. The market made a double-top last Friday of
14.89 basis March, which was an 11-year high. The market was overbought
as the Commitment of Trader's Report showed specs and funds net-long
over 175,000 contracts. The longer-term outlook for this market
is still friendly as the production of ethanol continues to be high.
The cash market continues to see routine purchases. We could continue
to see a correction in the near-term, especially with the large
net-long position by funds and specs. These price corrections should
be good buying opportunities. Support for March is at 14.00. Resistance
is at 14.50.
OJ: (Trading Hours: 9:00am-12:30pm CST) (Report, as of 1/3
close) The market continues to trade sideways/higher after
prices retraced down to 120.00 basis March. The market was pressured
as longs liquidated positions ahead of the January notice period,
which began today, 1/3. There were NO notices for this contract.
The market continues to find underlying support as a smaller Florida
crop is expected. The Florida crop has been reduced due to hurricanes
and diseases. We are still in the winter season in Florida but there
have been no threats for a freeze. The freeze season usually ends
towards the end of January. A threat of a freeze could add some
volatility in this market. If there are no threats, this market
will continue to trade on technicals. Support for January is at
121.50. Resistance is at 124.00.
COTTON: (Trading Hours: 9:30am-1:15pm CST) (Report, as of
1/3 close) The market gapped higher today and pushed to
a 2-month high of 55.25 basis March. The market has been supported
as China is still expected to remain an active buyer in the first-quarter
of this year. Funds were noted buyers today. In order for prices
to continue to move higher, we will need to see strong export sales
each week. Technically, prices could move to an upside gap that
extends from 56.00 to 56.30. The market already has factored a large
U.S. crop and demand will determine the direction of this market.
The USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report Sales Report is released every
Thursday at 7:30am Central Time. This week it'll be released Friday
morning due to the holiday on Monday. Support for March is at 54.00.
Resistance is at 56.00-56.30.
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